The National Land Podcast

What Will Happen to Land Values in 2026?

Farmer Mac’s Jackson Takach returns with a title update and a clear read on the new USDA outlook. He unpacks why USDA revised 2025 net cash farm income down by about 30 billion dollars, then sets 2026 at 158 billion dollars with roughly 44 billion dollars of support payments, about 30 percent of profits. Inputs are still high for grains and oilseeds, while protein sectors benefit from cheaper feed and steady demand. Land values look similar to 2025 with strength in cattle and recreational areas, caution in the Delta, and water-sensitive pockets out West. Jackson closes with rate risk, fertilizer and trade wildcards, and a simple plan for producers to time operating, intermediate, and long-term debt.

Farmer Mac

https://www.farmermac.com/

 

The Feed

https://www.farmermac.com/news-events/the-feed/ 

 

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com

• USDA pegs 2026 net cash farm income at about 158 billion dollars after marking 2025 down by roughly 30 billion, with about 44 billion coming from support programs.

• Grains and oilseeds face tight margins from high inputs and softer prices, while cattle, hogs, and poultry see better profitability on lower feed costs and solid demand.

• Farmland outlook echoes 2025: firmer in cattle and recreation zones and near metros, softer pressure in the Delta across soybeans, cotton, and rice, and localized water risks in the West.

• Financial health remains okay at the sector level with lower debt-to-asset ratios and easing short-term interest expense, though planning matters.

• Key swing factors for 2026 include fertilizer supply, trade flows, drought, and biofuels demand; producers should set a written plan for operating, intermediate, and long-term debt.

• Farmer Mac updates: earnings call on February 19, quarterly webinars, The Feed, and a Farmland Price Index based on actual trades coming soon.

Row-cropping hardwoods with Morse Nursery and Jacob Jenkins

Morse Nursery’s Tim Mills and National Land Realty agent Jacob Jenkins explain how to “row crop” hardwoods with proven genetics, tree tubes, and tight management to create reliable timber and wildlife results. From West Lafayette, Indiana, Morse grows grafted fruit and nut trees and supplies Tree Pro tubes that speed straight, tall growth. They cover black walnut and white oak veneer genetics, blight-resistant American hybrid chestnuts that bear in 3 to 5 years, planting densities of 100 to 125 trees per acre on 20-foot centers, and why weed control and pruning discipline make or break a planting. For hunters, they map staggered drop times across apples, persimmons, and chestnuts to hold deer after surrounding crops are harvested. For investors, Tim outlines chestnut orchard math at maturity around year 15, with 2,000 to 3,000 pounds per acre and common wholesale pricing near 4 dollars per pound, while guiding to a conservative target near 6,000 dollars per acre.

 

Morse Nursery: 

https://morsenursery.com/

 

Talk with Jacob Jenkins: 

https://nationalland.com/real-estate-agent/jacob-jenkins

 

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com

American Timber Markets and Timber Investment Site Planning

Forester and timber consultant Kraig Moore (KY/TN) breaks down the 2025 hardwood landscape: prices up roughly 3% YoY overall (net flat after inflation), sharp species splits (yellow-poplar +~20%, sugar maple +20–30%, white oak −~11% YoY but +~52% over 5 years; walnut +~85% over 5 years), and fragile mill capacity after 100+ sawmill closures in two years. He explains how tariffs, China’s historic pull for ~40% of U.S. lumber, and production shifting to Vietnam (labor ~⅓ cheaper than China) are reshaping demand. For landowners, the play is smart silviculture, competition-driven quality, patch clear-cuts/group selection, avoiding diameter-limit cuts, and aligning to mills within ~60–90 miles, to grow value and keep white oak (bourbon barrel essential) regenerating amid maple/beech pressure. Kentucky is ~50% forested, and with interest rates easing and housing starts improving, Kraig is cautiously bullish on hardwoods as a diversification pillar.

Episode takeaways:

• Market snapshot: Hardwood prices ~+3% YoY overall (inflation-adjusted ≈ flat), with big winners (yellow-poplar, sugar maple) and laggards (hickory; white oak down YoY but strong 5-yr trend; walnut dominant long-term).

• Capacity risk: 100+ sawmills gone in two years; if demand pops, supply could choke, pushing prices up fast.

• Trade shift: China historically bought ~40% of U.S. lumber/logs; tariffs drove processing to Vietnam (labor ~⅓ cheaper than China), altering log vs. lumber economics.

• Profit strategy for landowners: Manage for competition (natural pruning/straightness), use patch clear-cuts/group selection, avoid diameter-limit cuts, and time sales to species cycles.

• Operational realities: Best ROI when mills are within ~60–90 miles; steep terrain or helicopter logging crush margins.

• White oak future: Main challenge is regeneration, not overharvest, control shade-tolerant maple/beech, open canopy on the right aspects, and keep foresters involved.

Talk to Kraig Moore: 
https://nationalland.com/real-estate-agent/kraig-moore

 

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com 

Turn Longleaf Pine into Annual Income with Pine Straw Raking

University of Georgia’s David Dickens and National Land Realty forester-agent Steve Chapman break down how pine straw turns timberland into a cash-flowing asset before the first thinning. For longleaf stands, raking can often start around age 12–15 and run 5–10 seasons, commonly paying about $150–$250 per acre on cutover sites and $250–$400 per acre on old-field sites, with first-year old-field rakes sometimes higher. At 100 acres and $300 per acre, that is roughly $30,000 a year and up to $300,000 before a first cut. They cover species fit (longleaf leads, slash limited, loblolly has no straw value), contract traps to avoid, CRP limits, and how herbicide, spacing, and canopy closure drive straw yield.

Episode takeaways:

• Longleaf pine is the primary straw species; raking usually begins at age 12–15 once canopy closure suppresses understory, then repeats annually for 5–10 years.

• Typical annual payments: about $150–$250 per acre on cutover sites and $250–$400 per acre on old-field sites; an example 100-acre tract at $300 per acre yields about $30,000 per year pre-thinning.

• Sell straw by the acre, not by the bale; define terms if you must do bale pricing and expect year-to-year yield swings.

• Manage for clean floors and tree health: foliar-only herbicide every few years, avoid excessive raking in arid areas, watch nutrient export and moisture loss that can invite beetles on marginal sands.

• Thinning resets raking in Georgia; most contractors prefer thinned stands, so plan to harvest straw before the first thinning window.

• CRP wildlife contracts generally prohibit raking during the term; prescribed fire is fine but schedule it 2–3 years ahead of the first rake.

Dr. David Dickens

https://warnell.uga.edu/directory/people/dr-david-dickens

Talk to Steve Chapman about your land!

https://nationalland.com/real-estate-agent/steve-chapman 

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com 

Agriculture of America and the State of Farm Broadcasting: with Jesse Allen

Jesse Allen, vice president of National A Content at Farm and Ranch Media, joins to talk about the real state of U.S. agriculture and ag media. He hosts Agriculture of America on roughly 60 stations and SiriusXM 147, plus Market Talk and the American Ag Network. We cover sub $4 corn, $9 soybeans, record beef prices alongside the lowest U.S. cattle inventory in 60 years, and the squeeze producers feel heading into 2026. The conversation also digs into mental health in rural communities, the rise of spray drones and autonomy, and why crops like canola and camelina are gaining attention for sustainable aviation fuel.

Episode takeaways:

• Grain margins are tight with sub $4 corn and $9 soybeans while input costs remain elevated.

• Cattle prices are high while national herd size is at a 60 year low, drawing policy attention.

• Mental health deserves proactive check ins across farms, families, and rural teams.

• Drones, see and spray systems, and autonomy can fill labor gaps and improve precision, with payload limits still a constraint.

• Interest is growing in canola, camelina, and sorghum as diversification plays, including ties to sustainable aviation fuel.

• Barriers to entry are rising as equipment and land costs climb, making creative financing and succession planning more important.

Farm and Ranch Media Linktree:

https://linktr.ee/farmranchmedia

Agriculture of America

https://www.agricultureofamerica.com

Market Talk

https://www.markettalkag.com

American Ag Network

https://www.americanagnetwork.com

 

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com 

Duck Ponds That Hold Birds: Soil, Water, and Plants with Gabe Goodson

Gabe Goodson, a National Land Realty agent in Alabama, breaks down exactly how to design, build, and manage small duck impoundments that actually hold birds. We cover ideal water body size (start around 2 acres), target depths (12–16"), clay-based soils (plus when bentonite makes sense), drawdown timing, pump/ice strategies, and moist-soil management that feeds ducks all season. Gabe also outlines realistic acreage needs (often 10–15 acres to support ~2 acres of water), common permitting paths (NRCS, local water-rights holders), and current land costs in his part of Alabama ($8k–$11k/acre) to help buyers budget the full project, not just the dirt. If you’re a landowner, buyer, or waterfowl hunter looking to add dependable duck habitat, this is a step-by-step playbook from soil test to first flights.

Episode takeaways:

• Start with soils & water: Target clay subsoil to hold water; avoid sand. Bentonite is a Plan B, not the plan.

• Right-sized water: About 2 acres of water at 12–16 inches depth shows well from the air and is ideal for dabblers.

• Acreage math: Plan on 10–15 total acres to comfortably support a ~2-acre impoundment and buffers/blinds.

• Moist-soil > monoculture: Staggered drawdowns (e.g., pull boards every couple weeks) promote diverse natural feed; rotate light disking every ~3 years.

• Plant strategy: Use natural seedbank where possible; supplement with Japanese/browntop millet when needed. Don’t mirror neighbors, be different if they all flood corn.

• Budget with eyes open: In Gabe’s market, raw land often runs $8k–$11k/acre; clay on-site saves real money on levees and sealing.

• Permits & neighbors: Start with NRCS and local water-rights owners; place blinds/shot angles to avoid 6:15 a.m. neighbor conflicts.

• Timeline: A well-planned impoundment can be built over one summer if the site is dry enough for dirt work.

• Common failure: Skipping soil tests and design, then discovering the “pond” won’t hold water.

Contact Gabe Goodson
https://nationalland.com/real-estate-agent/gabe-goodson

 

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com 

Is China Buying Up U.S. Farmland? What the Numbers Actually Say

Foreign ownership of U.S. farmland is a political lightning rod, but economist Danny Munch from the American Farm Bureau Federation walks through what the data actually says. Using USDA’s AFIDA reports, he explains that only about 3.61% of privately held U.S. ag land (roughly 48–49 million acres) is foreign-owned, and more than 60% of that is held by allies like Canada, the Netherlands, Italy, the U.K., and Germany. Much of the recent growth is tied to renewable energy leases and timber, not foreign governments trying to control food production. China, despite endless headlines, is associated with roughly 277,000 acres—about the size of one average Ohio county—while individual billionaires like Bill Gates own similar amounts and are arguably more influential through narrative and advocacy than acreage. The episode also digs into data gaps, shell companies, national security reviews, and why Farm Bureau members are just as worried about preserving private property rights as they are about foreign flags on land titles.

Episode takeaways:

• Foreign investors own about 3.61% of privately held U.S. agricultural land (≈48.8 million acres), and over 99% of all U.S. land is either U.S.-owned or held by countries generally considered allies.

• Canada alone holds about 15.35 million acres—more than a third of all foreign-owned U.S. ag land—followed by European players like the Netherlands and Italy, with large positions in timber and renewable energy, not row-crop land grabs.

• The big run-up in foreign-owned acres since 2010 is driven heavily by wind and solar leases plus timber, not foreign control of food production; roughly half of foreign-held ag land is forest land.

• China’s ownership, after USDA data corrections, is roughly 277,000 acres, about half of which came through acquisition of a U.S. pork company and another big chunk from a now-blocked Texas renewable project—politically noisy, but tiny in acreage and not a serious land-based strategy for national security.

• AFIDA data is the best tool we have, but it’s messy: weak enforcement, paper forms, limited staffing, and only tracing ownership three tiers deep mean shell structures and Cayman Islands registrations can obscure the “warm bodies” behind some acres.

• Farm Bureau members are increasingly uneasy about private mega-owners and narrative power (think billionaires and foundations) and about bad laws passed for headlines, not solutions—especially when those laws threaten core private property rights and ignore existing tools like CFIUS, which already reviews and can block risky foreign transactions.

American Farm Bureau Federation

https://www.fb.org/

 

Foreign Investment in U.S. Ag Land – The Latest Numbers

https://www.fb.org/market-intel/foreign-investment-in-u-s-ag-land-the-latest-numbers

 

How it Works — Understanding the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States

https://www.fb.org/market-intel/how-it-works-understanding-the-committee-on-foreign-investment-in-the-united-states

 

Foreign Footprints: Trends in U.S. Agricultural Land Ownership

https://www.fb.org/market-intel/foreign-footprints-trends-in-u-s-agricultural-land-ownership

 

National Land Realty - Buy, Sell, Lease, or Auction Land

https://www.nationalland.com 

Building a Public-Lands Newsroom: Christopher Keyes on RE:PUBLIC

The National Land Podcast sits down with journalist Chris Keyes—former Editor-in-Chief of Outside Magazine and founder of Republic, a new nonprofit newsroom dedicated to America’s public lands. We unpack why the outdoor recreation economy ($1.2–$1.3T) depends on access, how public-lands realities differ East vs. West, and what’s really at stake in debates over federal-to-state land transfers vs. outright sales. We examine recent proposals to open public land for housing, the role of BLM multi-use mandates (recreation, grazing, extraction), and why the recreation economy needs a louder seat at the table. Chris breaks down wilderness area rules, wildfire policy (staffing cuts, prescribed fire, and a push to unify wildland firefighting), and the ripple effects on gateway towns, ranching (millions of cattle on BLM allotments), outfitters, and everyday hunters and anglers. We also touch sustainable timber practices, old-growth forests, and the lived reality of Western access—dispersed camping, trail use, and why once access is lost, it rarely returns. If you own land, want to buy land, or just love being on it, this conversation delivers clear, nonpartisan insight into how policy choices impact recreation, agriculture, and rural economies. Learn more or support Republic at republic.land.

Episode takeaways:

• What Republic is and why a public-lands newsroom matters

• East vs. West access dynamics and why they shape policy debates

• Recreation’s economic weight vs. extraction and grazing interests

• Wildfire staffing, coordination, and forest management realities

• Practical implications for landowners, buyers, and outdoor users

RE:PUBLIC 

https://www.republic.land/

 

Donate to RE:PUBLIC

 

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com