What Will Happen to Land Values in 2026?

Farmer Mac’s Jackson Takach returns with a title update and a clear read on the new USDA outlook. He unpacks why USDA revised 2025 net cash farm income down by about 30 billion dollars, then sets 2026 at 158 billion dollars with roughly 44 billion dollars of support payments, about 30 percent of profits. Inputs are still high for grains and oilseeds, while protein sectors benefit from cheaper feed and steady demand. Land values look similar to 2025 with strength in cattle and recreational areas, caution in the Delta, and water-sensitive pockets out West. Jackson closes with rate risk, fertilizer and trade wildcards, and a simple plan for producers to time operating, intermediate, and long-term debt.

Farmer Mac

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The Feed

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National Land Realty

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• USDA pegs 2026 net cash farm income at about 158 billion dollars after marking 2025 down by roughly 30 billion, with about 44 billion coming from support programs.

• Grains and oilseeds face tight margins from high inputs and softer prices, while cattle, hogs, and poultry see better profitability on lower feed costs and solid demand.

• Farmland outlook echoes 2025: firmer in cattle and recreation zones and near metros, softer pressure in the Delta across soybeans, cotton, and rice, and localized water risks in the West.

• Financial health remains okay at the sector level with lower debt-to-asset ratios and easing short-term interest expense, though planning matters.

• Key swing factors for 2026 include fertilizer supply, trade flows, drought, and biofuels demand; producers should set a written plan for operating, intermediate, and long-term debt.

• Farmer Mac updates: earnings call on February 19, quarterly webinars, The Feed, and a Farmland Price Index based on actual trades coming soon.