The National Land Podcast

Tariffs, China, and Brazil’s Soy Surge: The Math No One Likes

The Midwest row‑crop math is ugly: cash prices are ~$4 corn and ~$10 soybeans against break‑evens near $4.50 (corn) and $11.50 (soybeans). University of Illinois agricultural economist Dr. Gary Schnitkey breaks down what’s driving it and what landowners, operators, and lenders should expect.

What we cover

• Tariffs & trade: No Chinese soybean bookings so far this season; China is favoring Brazil—and financing its export infrastructure. Result: lower U.S. prices now and a tougher long‑run soybean outlook.

• Cost structure: Seed/fertilizer stayed high; machinery costs jumped ~25% (2021–2023). Million‑dollar combines and pricier parts make scale (or equipment sharing) more critical.

• Break‑even reality: ~$4.50 corn / ~$11.50 soybeans vs. ~$4/$10 cash—why margins are negative without aid.

• Government payments: 2024 ad‑hoc aid (~$10B nationally; ~$37/acre in IL) kept incomes from going red; 2025 budgets assume ~$65/acre commodity title payments plus another ECAP‑style package. Policy support is holding up cash rents and land values.

• Farmland values & rents: Off the peak and largely flat. If payments fade, expect downward pressure; a gradual ~20% decline over time isn’t off the table if current conditions persist.

• Crop switching & regen: Few viable pivots in the Corn/Soy Belt. Lower prices slow regenerative adoption (transition takes time and can ding yield early). Great Plains likely adjust first.

• Livestock: Bright spot—cattle margins remain strong.

• Outlook: Barring a major shock (e.g., Brazil/US drought), expect $4 corn / $10 soybeans to stick. In the meantime, the sector is effectively “going to Washington.”

Guest: Dr. Gary Schnitkey, Professor of Agricultural & Consumer Economics, University of Illinois; works with FBFM (Farm Business Farm Management) and Precision Conservation Management (PCM) datasets.

 

Read about Dr. Gary Schnitkey
https://asc.illinois.edu/directory/gary-schnitkey/

 

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com 

Tariffs, Shutdowns & Soybeans: How Policy Is Hitting Farmland Now

Policy is slamming the countryside. Chris Clayton (DTN/Progressive Farmer) explains how tariffs, China’s pivot to Brazilian soybeans, and a USDA shutdown are colliding with harvest to pressure basis, storage, and cash flow—and to derail rural land sales. We dig into why China (historically 25–33% of U.S. soybean demand) is buying from Brazil (COFCO/ports, crush), how that drives basis widening and elevator capacity issues, and what could actually move the needle: biofuels (biodiesel/renewable diesel, ethanol, SAF). We also lay out shutdown fallout—FSA farm ownership/operating loans stalled, CRP payments paused, NRCS (EQIP/CSP) frozen—plus the limited upside from CCC/ECAP‑style aid. If you buy/sell rural land or advise landowners, this is the unvarnished read on farmland values, buyer pools, and the next 3–6 months.

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Why It Matters

• Deals slip/die: FSA loans are stopped, shrinking the buyer pool just as post‑harvest listings hit.

• Cash crunch: Basis widening + storage pressure at harvest reduce liquidity for down payments and improvements.

• Programs on ice: CRP checks delayed; NRCS projects paused—affecting valuations and conservation‑driven marketing.

• Demand hinges on policy: RFS, biodiesel/renewable diesel, and SAF tax credits will decide soy oil crush, corn demand, and rents.

• Strategy reality: Diversified ops with cattle are weathering this better than row‑crop‑only farms.

Progressive Farmer

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/home

 

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com

 

Market Watch Q3: Tariffs, Tight Margins, & Midwest Bankruptcies

Farm margins are tight and the headlines aren’t lying—tariffs, fertilizer and machinery costs, and labor constraints are hitting producers. Jackson Takach (Farmer Mac) breaks down what’s signal vs. noise.

What we cover:

• Tariffs 101: Section 301 (unfair trade), 232 (national security), and IEEPA actions (the biggest bucket and under legal challenge). Why these hit steel/aluminum and fertilizer components—and how that flows to implement and input prices.

• Costs that pay back vs. pure drag: seed tech and risk-reduction can be worth it; fertilizer, machinery and labor are harder to offset—2026 looks tighter than 2025.

• Adaptation that actually helps: proven tech + regenerative practices to reduce input reliance.

• Bankruptcies: Chapter 12 filings are up in Arkansas and Nebraska—rising from 2023–24 lows back toward 2018–20 levels.

• Regional stress drivers: soy/rice/cotton marketing pain and flooding in AR; feedlot squeeze and weaker soy export pull in NE.

• Policy + relief: ongoing US–China trade talks; ~$15–20B of prior-year USDA aid still to deploy; Farm Bill politics and PLC “facelift” dynamics.

• Opportunities: growing global protein demand, renewable diesel/SAF, and more U.S. soybean crush capacity.

• Labor & immigration: H‑2A works for seasonal crops; year‑round gaps push automation.

• AI’s real role: better data sense‑making and lending workflows—not replacing credit decisions.

• Land values: Midwest stabilizing/slipping, Southeast firming, West = water‑dependent. Introducing the Farmland Price Index (Farmer Mac × AcreValue) built on transactions, not surveys.

Farmer Mac

https://www.farmermac.com/

 

The Feed - Farmland Price Index (By Farmer Mac)

https://farmermac.com/thefeed/q2-2025-farmland-price-index-update/

 

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com 

The Real Estate Auction Playbook: With Joel King Of National Land Realty

Are you a landowner or developer weighing an auction vs. traditional listing—or a land agent who needs a faster, cleaner path to price discovery?

In this episode of The National Land Podcast, host Mac Christian sits down with Joel King—a 42-year real estate veteran (licensed across the South/Midwest)—to explain when auctions win, how to run them right, and when to walk away.

What You’ll Learn

• When to choose auction: marketable asset, real buyer pool, and the ability to create competition (not every property qualifies).

• Subdivide smart: use local regs (septic/well/roads) and multi-par bidding to expand affordability without torching community goodwill.

• Auction types, plain and simple: reserve vs. absolute, sealed-bid, and why Dutch auctions are rare.

• Timeline that actually happens: ~45–60 days to auction, ~30 days to close—about 90 days end-to-end.

• Due diligence that protects you: title search early, screen the seller (SOS), require bidder access, no post-auction contingencies, and order Phase I (and II if needed) for potential EPA issues.

• Price discovery by competition: the crowd validates value; proper increments and structure prevent the “sold for a dollar” myth.

• Marketing that moves the needle: rifle (targeted) > shotgun; local/regional/national mix; weekdays for commercial; avoid big game days; Midwest selling season is Sep 15–Mar 15.

• Creating value: utilities/road tweaks, owner-finance options, and bank/REO case studies where breaking into digestible tracts unlocked 6-figure gains.

• Expectation management: don’t “buy the listing.” Need/want ≠ value (your four heirs wanting $1M each doesn’t set price).

This episode is a must-listen for

• Landowners who want a 90-day exit or real price discovery

• Developers/land funds, banks, trustees, receivers moving inventory at scale

• Ag operators pruning marginal tracts to strengthen balance sheets

• Land agents/brokers adding a proven auction tool to close tough listings

Bottom line: If more than one qualified buyer wants it, a well-run auction can beat months on the market. Get the right team, do the diligence, set a real timeline, and let competition do its job.

 

Talk with Joel King

https://nationalland.com/real-estate-agent/joel-king

 

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com

Probate or Problems: Avoid Family Feuds With Estate Planning For Your Land

Are you a landowner who wants your ranch to pass cleanly to the next generation—or a land agent tired of deals dying over cloudy title?

In this episode of The National Land Podcast, host Mac Christian sits down with Tiffany Dowell Lashmet (Ag Law Professor & Extension Specialist, Texas A&M) and Wayne Dunson (Managing Broker, National Land Realty—West Texas) to demystify probate—the legal process that moves assets from the deceased to the living—and the tools that keep it from blowing up your land plans.

What You’ll Learn:

• What probate is and why you still need it even if there’s a will

• Dying without a will (intestacy): how state statutes—not your wishes—divide assets and create messy joint ownership

• Why failing to probate strands title in the deceased’s name, blocks sales, and costs heirs more later (e.g., Texas has a typical 4-year window)

• Wills vs. Trusts: trusts can bypass probate entirely; when each makes sense for landowners

• Texas will execution basics: handwritten (holographic) vs. typewritten wills, witness rules, and why beneficiaries shouldn’t witness

• Probate-avoidance tools: LLCs and transfer-on-death deeds (in Texas, revocable) to move property with only a death certificate

• Real-world horror stories: unknown heirs, missing co-owners, partition suits, deep discounts to clear title

• Family dynamics you must address now: on-farm vs. off-farm heirs, unequal contributions, and setting expectations

• Why DIY online forms backfire on farms/ranches—hire an ag-savvy estate-planning attorney in your state

• Agent playbook: verify probate status early, flag title clouds, and get clients to counsel before listing

This episode is a must-listen for:

• Landowners and family decision-makers on farms and ranches

• Heirs, executors, and trustees facing title/estate questions

• Land agents/brokers who want to prevent deal-killing probate issues

• CPAs and attorneys serving rural clients

Don’t punt on probate. A valid, state-compliant plan now is cheaper than courtroom chaos later—get the right documents in place, probate on time, and keep your land legacy intact.

 

Read about Tiffany Lashmet

https://agecon.tamu.edu/people/dowell-lashmet-tiffany/

 

Contact Wayne Dunson

https://nationalland.com/real-estate-agent/wayne-dunson

 

National Land Realty

Buy, Sell, Lease, or Auction Land

https://www.nationalland.com 

Section 180: The Underrated Farmland Tax Play You’re Missing

Are you a landowner buying or selling ag ground, or a land agent who wants a real, defensible way to put money back in your client’s pocket?

In this episode of The National Land Podcast, host Mac Christian talks with Alec Bean and Karly Pavlinac of The Soil Tax Guys about a powerful, underused tool: IRS Section 180. In plain English, you can deduct the excess soil fertility you acquire with a farm or ranch, treating those nutrients like an asset, if you follow the rules.

Whether you row-crop, graze cattle, or market farmland, you’ll learn how to lock in a one-time, use-it-or-lose-it deduction that can materially change deal math.

What You’ll Learn:

• How Section 180 works (fertility valued via soil tests and USDA pricing = tax deduction)

• The critical timing: test after closing and before any fertilizer is applied

• Typical values (~$500/ac averages) and real cases topping $1k–$6.5k/ac

• Three ways CPAs take it: all at once, 60/30/10 over 3 years, or over useful life

• Where it applies: food and forage production (crops, grazing)—not timber/hunting-only tracts

• State nuances: why land-grant university guidelines drive which nutrients count

• Deal strategy: pre-sale testing as a marketing tool, auction use, and portfolio roll-forward

• Risk & readiness: audit-defensible reports (GPS’d sampling, documentation) and common CPA misconceptions

• Edge cases: recent purchases with no fertilizer yet, and why inheritance usually doesn’t qualify

This episode is a must-listen for:

• Farm/ranch owners buying or selling ground

• Land brokers/auctioneers who want a sharper pitch (and faster closings)

• Operators expanding portfolios who reinvest tax savings into the next deal

• Heirs/trustees evaluating sale vs. hold strategies on working land

Don’t leave five or six figures on the table. If ag is the use, Section 180 should be on your checklist every single time.

Conservation Easements: Protect Land, Keep Using It

Are you a landowner who wants to keep your place working, without watching it get carved into subdivisions? Or a land agent who needs a straight, defensible path to long-term land protection and tax advantages?

In this episode of The National Land Podcast, host Mac Christian sits down with Sara Johnson (Conservation Biologist, North American Land Trust) and Doug Bruggeman (National Land Realty agent & ecological economist) to break down the most powerful, yet misunderstood tool in private-land conservation: the conservation easement.

Whether you ranch, farm, manage timber, or own family hunting ground, this episode shows how to protect land in perpetuity, keep core uses, and capture real tax benefits, without killing resale.

What You’ll Learn:

• How conservation easements actually work (reserved rights, building envelopes, what’s allowed vs. restricted)
• How appraisals drive tax deductions and multi-year carryforwards, plus special treatment for farmers and ranchers
• What baseline documentation and ongoing stewardship look like (so you avoid violations)
• How mitigation/species banking fits in (yes, “bat banks”) and when it applies
• Market reality: selling conserved land, busting the “no buyers” myth, and planning for legacy
• Risk control: avoiding inflated appraisals, handling violations, and the rare eminent-domain edge cases

This episode is a must-listen for:

• Landowners who want to lock in open space, wildlife habitat, and water quality
• Brokers/agents advising clients on conservation-forward exit strategies
• Ranchers, farmers, and timber owners balancing income with protection
• Heirs and family trustees aiming to prevent future subdivision and keep the place intact
• Don’t guess your way through “forever.” If you want your acreage protected and still productive, this is the candid playbook on conservation easements.

 

North American Land Trust

https://northamericanlandtrust.org/

 

Talk with Doug Bruggeman

https://nationalland.com/real-estate-agent/doug-bruggeman 

 

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com 

What 2025’s Big Ag Bills Really Mean for Your Land

2025’s ag laws, no spin. American Farm Burueau Federation Economist, Daniel Munch, breaks down what the American Relief Act and HR1 (“One Big Beautiful Bill”) actually changed for farmers, ranchers, and timberland owners: disaster aid, tax relief, ARC/PLC extensions, conservation through 2031, disease‑readiness funding—and what Washington still hasn’t fixed.

• Why these passed: must‑pass funding + reconciliation math, not kumbaya.

• Core programs extended to 2031: ARC/PLC, Dairy Margin Coverage; EQIP/CSP/ACEP funded forward.

• CRP: not extended in HR1; needs separate action (a “skinny” farm bill or stand‑alone).

• Disaster money: ~$30B total in the Relief Act (≈$10B economic aid to row‑crops; ≈$20B disasters). Helpful, not enough to backfill multi‑year crop, livestock, timber, and infrastructure losses.

• Drought trigger fixed: LFP now four consecutive weeks of qualifying drought (down from eight).

• Rancher win: LIP now 100% compensation for federally protected predator kills (wolves/grizzlies).

• State block grants: Flexibility for hard‑hit states (e.g., hurricane zones) that can include timber.

• Taxes you can actually use: Estate tax exemption permanent at $15M / $30M couple; 199A stays; bonus depreciation back; Section 179 expensing up to $2.5M for equipment and capital improvements (barns, fencing, irrigation).

• Clean fuel credits (45Z): benefits risk getting stuck at processors unless contracts force value back to growers.

• Disease readiness: $233M/year mandated for stockpiles, diagnostics, training—real money to keep herds healthy.

• Market context: Land values up but margins down; these programs support lender confidence but don’t erase price pressure.

• Foreign land ownership: Data/reporting gaps are real; enforcement and look‑through need teeth; private‑property rights vs. national‑security concerns.

• Why SNAP stays in the farm bill: urban votes keep farm programs alive. No SNAP = no votes = no farm bill.

American Farm Bureau Federation

https://www.fb.org/

 

One Big Beautiful Bill Act: Final Agricultural Provisions, by Daniel Munch

https://www.fb.org/market-intel/one-big-beautiful-bill-act-final-agricultural-provisions 

 

National Land Realty

Buy, Sell, Lease, or Auction Land

https://www.nationalland.com