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The National Land Podcast is the go-to show for landowners, ranchers, farmers, rural investors, and outdoor stewards who want straight talk and field-tested insights. In each episode, host Mac Christian sits down with economists, lenders, ranchers, wildlife pros, policy leaders, and elite land brokers to unpack market forces, risk, and opportunity across America’s land, then turns it into clear takeaways you can use on your acreage tomorrow. Expect smart explainers and real stories on farm and ranch operations, timber and wildlife management, hunting access and leases, water and mineral rights, easements, 1031 exchanges, FSA/USDA programs, carbon credits, conservation monetization, rural financing, and the ag economy. If you buy, sell, manage, or dream about land, follow now and make better decisions, season after season.
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Saturday Oct 18, 2025
Saturday Oct 18, 2025
The Midwest row‑crop math is ugly: cash prices are ~$4 corn and ~$10 soybeans against break‑evens near $4.50 (corn) and $11.50 (soybeans). University of Illinois agricultural economist Dr. Gary Schnitkey breaks down what’s driving it and what landowners, operators, and lenders should expect.
What we cover
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Tariffs & trade: No Chinese soybean bookings so far this season; China is favoring Brazil—and financing its export infrastructure. Result: lower U.S. prices now and a tougher long‑run soybean outlook.
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Cost structure: Seed/fertilizer stayed high; machinery costs jumped ~25% (2021–2023). Million‑dollar combines and pricier parts make scale (or equipment sharing) more critical.
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Break‑even reality: ~$4.50 corn / ~$11.50 soybeans vs. ~$4/$10 cash—why margins are negative without aid.
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Government payments: 2024 ad‑hoc aid (~$10B nationally; ~$37/acre in IL) kept incomes from going red; 2025 budgets assume ~$65/acre commodity title payments plus another ECAP‑style package. Policy support is holding up cash rents and land values.
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Farmland values & rents: Off the peak and largely flat. If payments fade, expect downward pressure; a gradual ~20% decline over time isn’t off the table if current conditions persist.
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Crop switching & regen: Few viable pivots in the Corn/Soy Belt. Lower prices slow regenerative adoption (transition takes time and can ding yield early). Great Plains likely adjust first.
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Livestock: Bright spot—cattle margins remain strong.
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Outlook: Barring a major shock (e.g., Brazil/US drought), expect $4 corn / $10 soybeans to stick. In the meantime, the sector is effectively “going to Washington.”
Guest: Dr. Gary Schnitkey, Professor of Agricultural & Consumer Economics, University of Illinois; works with FBFM (Farm Business Farm Management) and Precision Conservation Management (PCM) datasets.
Read about Dr. Gary Schnitkey
https://asc.illinois.edu/directory/gary-schnitkey/
National Land Realty
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